Fixed-weight portfolio · Benchmark: SPY · 2012-2026
Generated: 2026-09-24 06:52
| Strategy | Allocation | Capital ($10,000) | Data Start |
|---|---|---|---|
| vanguard_VGTquarterly | 25.00% | $2,500 | 2007-10-31 |
| machine_pickmonthly | 25.00% | $2,500 | 2008-06-30 |
| hot_stocksmonthly | 17.38% | $1,738 | 2012-12-31 |
| easy_NASmonthly | 14.38% | $1,438 | 2012-10-31 |
| easy_spidermonthly | 10.62% | $1,062 | 2012-10-31 |
| defense_firstmonthly | 7.62% | $762 | 2012-10-31 |
Look-through of each strategy's current target allocation, aggregated by ticker · signals 2026-06-30 .. 2026-08-31. Each sleeve signals on its own schedule — the date beside a holding is when that sleeve last set it, so a quarterly sleeve stays anchored to its rebalance while monthly sleeves move on. Strategies with no recorded holdings appear as (STRATEGY) line items.
| Ticker | Portfolio Weight | Capital ($10,000) | Held via |
|---|---|---|---|
| BIL | 25.00% | $2,500 | vanguard_VGT 25.0% @2026-06-30 |
| DBC | 15.04% | $1,504 | machine_pick 12.5% @2026-08-31, defense_first 2.5% @2026-08-31 |
| GLD | 14.53% | $1,453 | machine_pick 12.5% @2026-08-31, defense_first 2.0% @2026-08-31 |
| QQQ | 14.38% | $1,438 | easy_NAS 14.4% @2026-08-31 |
| SPY | 10.62% | $1,062 | easy_spider 10.6% @2026-08-31 |
| AMD | 4.97% | $497 | hot_stocks 5.0% @2026-08-31 |
| MU | 4.14% | $414 | hot_stocks 4.1% @2026-08-31 |
| INTC | 3.31% | $331 | hot_stocks 3.3% @2026-08-31 |
| CSCO | 2.48% | $248 | hot_stocks 2.5% @2026-08-31 |
| UNH | 1.66% | $166 | hot_stocks 1.7% @2026-08-31 |
| QLD | 1.52% | $152 | defense_first 1.5% @2026-08-31 |
| UUP | 1.52% | $152 | defense_first 1.5% @2026-08-31 |
| CRM | 0.83% | $83 | hot_stocks 0.8% @2026-08-31 |
Growth of $10,000 - logarithmic scale · monthly rebalance to target weights
Decline from the prior peak, on monthly equity
Paper growth unavailable: no paper-trader books found for these strategies.
| Metric | Conservative Growth | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| Start Balance | $10,000 | $10,000 |
| End Balance | $291,482 | $68,668 |
| Annualized Return (CAGR) | 27.61% | 14.94% |
| Standard Deviation | 11.47% | 14.12% |
| Best Year | 68.12% | 32.31% |
| Worst Year | 0.15% | -18.18% |
| Max Drawdown (daily) | -- | -33.72% (2020-03-23) |
| Max Drawdown (monthly) | -8.69% (2020-10-31) | -23.93% (2022-09-30) |
| Sharpe Ratio | 2.04 | 0.93 |
| Sortino Ratio | 4.52 | 1.33 |
| Benchmark Correlation | 0.68 | 1.00 |
Sharpe and Sortino use returns in excess of the 3-month T-bill (FRED DGS3MO), averaging 1.85% a year over this window; Sortino's downside deviation is measured below that same rate.
| Year | Portfolio Return | Balance | SPY Return | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27.22% | $291,482 | 13.47% | $68,668 |
| 2025 | 36.09% | $229,120 | 17.72% | $60,514 |
| 2024 | 27.49% | $168,361 | 24.89% | $51,405 |
| 2023 | 36.32% | $132,057 | 26.18% | $41,162 |
| 2022 | 7.39% | $96,875 | -18.18% | $32,622 |
| 2021 | 27.08% | $90,206 | 28.73% | $39,869 |
| 2020 | 68.12% | $70,986 | 18.33% | $30,971 |
| 2019 | 30.51% | $42,224 | 31.22% | $26,173 |
| 2018 | 9.26% | $32,353 | -4.57% | $19,945 |
| 2017 | 24.08% | $29,610 | 21.71% | $20,900 |
| 2016 | 28.67% | $23,865 | 12.00% | $17,173 |
| 2015 | 4.97% | $18,547 | 1.23% | $15,333 |
| 2014 | 20.68% | $17,668 | 13.46% | $15,146 |
| 2013 | 46.18% | $14,641 | 32.31% | $13,349 |
| 2012 | 0.15% | $10,015 | 0.89% | $10,089 |
| Year | Mo | Portfolio | Balance | SPY | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 09 | 2.41% | $291,482 | 0.35% | $68,668 |
| 2026 | 08 | 2.49% | $284,616 | 2.68% | $68,430 |
| 2026 | 07 | -3.70% | $277,689 | 0.03% | $66,644 |
| 2026 | 06 | 2.00% | $288,361 | -1.03% | $66,621 |
| 2026 | 05 | 10.97% | $282,711 | 5.26% | $67,314 |
| 2026 | 04 | 10.85% | $254,768 | 10.51% | $63,948 |
| 2026 | 03 | -4.01% | $229,824 | -4.94% | $57,869 |
| 2026 | 02 | -0.65% | $239,437 | -0.86% | $60,875 |
| 2026 | 01 | 5.19% | $241,006 | 1.47% | $61,406 |
| 2025 | 12 | 0.13% | $229,120 | 0.08% | $60,514 |
| 2025 | 11 | -1.97% | $228,826 | 0.19% | $60,466 |
| 2025 | 10 | 7.18% | $233,422 | 2.38% | $60,348 |
| 2025 | 09 | 5.29% | $217,789 | 3.56% | $58,943 |
| 2025 | 08 | 0.48% | $206,847 | 2.05% | $56,915 |
| 2025 | 07 | 1.00% | $205,851 | 2.30% | $55,771 |
| 2025 | 06 | 7.45% | $203,817 | 5.14% | $54,515 |
| 2025 | 05 | 6.58% | $189,689 | 6.28% | $51,851 |
| 2025 | 04 | 2.32% | $177,971 | -0.87% | $48,785 |
| 2025 | 03 | 2.95% | $173,928 | -5.57% | $49,212 |
| 2025 | 02 | -1.86% | $168,950 | -1.27% | $52,116 |
| 2025 | 01 | 2.25% | $172,153 | 2.69% | $52,786 |
| 2024 | 12 | -0.62% | $168,361 | -2.41% | $51,405 |
| 2024 | 11 | 7.08% | $169,409 | 5.96% | $52,673 |
| 2024 | 10 | -0.69% | $158,213 | -0.89% | $49,708 |
| 2024 | 09 | 2.27% | $159,312 | 2.10% | $50,156 |
| 2024 | 08 | 1.31% | $155,782 | 2.34% | $49,124 |
| 2024 | 07 | 0.37% | $153,763 | 1.21% | $48,002 |
| 2024 | 06 | 4.39% | $153,201 | 3.53% | $47,428 |
| 2024 | 05 | 3.64% | $146,753 | 5.06% | $45,812 |
| 2024 | 04 | -2.17% | $141,593 | -4.03% | $43,606 |
| 2024 | 03 | 1.74% | $144,739 | 3.27% | $45,438 |
| 2024 | 02 | 6.15% | $142,262 | 5.22% | $43,999 |
| 2024 | 01 | 1.49% | $134,021 | 1.59% | $41,817 |
| 2023 | 12 | 3.96% | $132,057 | 4.57% | $41,162 |
| 2023 | 11 | 3.55% | $127,023 | 9.13% | $39,364 |
| 2023 | 10 | -1.10% | $122,671 | -2.17% | $36,070 |
| 2023 | 09 | -4.22% | $124,031 | -4.74% | $36,870 |
| 2023 | 08 | -0.92% | $129,496 | -1.63% | $38,706 |
| 2023 | 07 | 3.78% | $130,700 | 3.27% | $39,345 |
| 2023 | 06 | 6.50% | $125,943 | 6.48% | $38,098 |
| 2023 | 05 | 6.86% | $118,251 | 0.46% | $35,780 |
| 2023 | 04 | 0.42% | $110,662 | 1.60% | $35,615 |
| 2023 | 03 | 7.01% | $110,204 | 3.71% | $35,055 |
| 2023 | 02 | -1.21% | $102,986 | -2.51% | $33,802 |
| 2023 | 01 | 7.61% | $104,247 | 6.29% | $34,674 |
| 2022 | 12 | -0.34% | $96,875 | -5.76% | $32,622 |
| 2022 | 11 | -0.18% | $97,203 | 5.56% | $34,617 |
| 2022 | 10 | 3.17% | $97,382 | 8.13% | $32,794 |
| 2022 | 09 | -0.51% | $94,392 | -9.24% | $30,329 |
| 2022 | 08 | -1.46% | $94,873 | -4.08% | $33,419 |
| 2022 | 07 | 0.23% | $96,278 | 9.21% | $34,840 |
| 2022 | 06 | -4.13% | $96,061 | -8.25% | $31,902 |
| 2022 | 05 | 2.33% | $100,196 | 0.23% | $34,769 |
| 2022 | 04 | 1.00% | $97,916 | -8.78% | $34,691 |
| 2022 | 03 | 4.41% | $96,948 | 3.76% | $38,029 |
| 2022 | 02 | 2.93% | $92,851 | -2.95% | $36,651 |
| 2022 | 01 | 0.00% | $90,207 | -5.27% | $37,766 |
| 2021 | 12 | 0.16% | $90,206 | 4.62% | $39,869 |
| 2021 | 11 | 2.92% | $90,066 | -0.80% | $38,106 |
| 2021 | 10 | 5.91% | $87,511 | 7.02% | $38,415 |
| 2021 | 09 | -3.71% | $82,631 | -4.66% | $35,896 |
| 2021 | 08 | 4.44% | $85,811 | 2.98% | $37,651 |
| 2021 | 07 | 3.09% | $82,164 | 2.44% | $36,563 |
| 2021 | 06 | 3.96% | $79,701 | 2.24% | $35,692 |
| 2021 | 05 | -0.41% | $76,663 | 0.66% | $34,909 |
| 2021 | 04 | 5.07% | $76,976 | 5.29% | $34,681 |
| 2021 | 03 | 1.78% | $73,264 | 4.54% | $32,938 |
| 2021 | 02 | 1.41% | $71,984 | 2.78% | $31,508 |
| 2021 | 01 | -0.00% | $70,984 | -1.02% | $30,655 |
| 2020 | 12 | 5.92% | $70,986 | 3.70% | $30,971 |
| 2020 | 11 | 13.70% | $67,018 | 10.88% | $29,865 |
| 2020 | 10 | -3.15% | $58,945 | -2.49% | $26,935 |
| 2020 | 09 | -5.72% | $60,861 | -3.74% | $27,623 |
| 2020 | 08 | 11.24% | $64,557 | 6.98% | $28,698 |
| 2020 | 07 | 9.57% | $58,032 | 5.89% | $26,826 |
| 2020 | 06 | 6.30% | $52,962 | 1.77% | $25,334 |
| 2020 | 05 | 2.66% | $49,825 | 4.76% | $24,892 |
| 2020 | 04 | 9.00% | $48,533 | 12.70% | $23,760 |
| 2020 | 03 | 1.26% | $44,524 | -12.49% | $21,083 |
| 2020 | 02 | 0.82% | $43,971 | -7.92% | $24,091 |
| 2020 | 01 | 3.29% | $43,614 | -0.04% | $26,163 |
| 2019 | 12 | 4.35% | $42,224 | 2.91% | $26,173 |
| 2019 | 11 | 2.64% | $40,463 | 3.62% | $25,434 |
| 2019 | 10 | 1.45% | $39,421 | 2.21% | $24,546 |
| 2019 | 09 | -1.26% | $38,858 | 1.95% | $24,015 |
| 2019 | 08 | 5.36% | $39,353 | -1.67% | $23,556 |
| 2019 | 07 | 2.29% | $37,351 | 1.51% | $23,958 |
| 2019 | 06 | 5.38% | $36,514 | 6.96% | $23,601 |
| 2019 | 05 | -1.63% | $34,648 | -6.38% | $22,065 |
| 2019 | 04 | 1.50% | $35,221 | 4.09% | $23,568 |
| 2019 | 03 | 1.42% | $34,702 | 1.81% | $22,643 |
| 2019 | 02 | 1.04% | $34,215 | 3.24% | $22,241 |
| 2019 | 01 | 4.67% | $33,863 | 8.01% | $21,542 |
| 2018 | 12 | -1.09% | $32,353 | -8.80% | $19,945 |
| 2018 | 11 | 0.62% | $32,710 | 1.85% | $21,871 |
| 2018 | 10 | -5.35% | $32,508 | -6.91% | $21,473 |
| 2018 | 09 | 2.77% | $34,346 | 0.59% | $23,067 |
| 2018 | 08 | 3.61% | $33,420 | 3.19% | $22,930 |
| 2018 | 07 | -0.39% | $32,257 | 3.70% | $22,221 |
| 2018 | 06 | 0.53% | $32,383 | 0.58% | $21,427 |
| 2018 | 05 | 4.58% | $32,212 | 2.43% | $21,305 |
| 2018 | 04 | 0.68% | $30,803 | 0.52% | $20,799 |
| 2018 | 03 | -3.22% | $30,596 | -2.74% | $20,692 |
| 2018 | 02 | -0.85% | $31,613 | -3.64% | $21,275 |
| 2018 | 01 | 7.68% | $31,884 | 5.64% | $22,078 |
| 2017 | 12 | 1.78% | $29,610 | 1.21% | $20,900 |
| 2017 | 11 | 1.87% | $29,094 | 3.06% | $20,650 |
| 2017 | 10 | 5.58% | $28,559 | 2.36% | $20,037 |
| 2017 | 09 | 0.75% | $27,049 | 2.01% | $19,576 |
| 2017 | 08 | 2.39% | $26,847 | 0.29% | $19,189 |
| 2017 | 07 | 3.87% | $26,221 | 2.06% | $19,134 |
| 2017 | 06 | -1.75% | $25,244 | 0.64% | $18,748 |
| 2017 | 05 | 2.55% | $25,695 | 1.41% | $18,630 |
| 2017 | 04 | 0.30% | $25,056 | 0.99% | $18,370 |
| 2017 | 03 | 0.36% | $24,982 | 0.13% | $18,190 |
| 2017 | 02 | 3.20% | $24,893 | 3.93% | $18,167 |
| 2017 | 01 | 1.08% | $24,121 | 1.79% | $17,480 |
| 2016 | 12 | 3.97% | $23,865 | 2.03% | $17,173 |
| 2016 | 11 | 2.71% | $22,953 | 3.68% | $16,832 |
| 2016 | 10 | -1.03% | $22,347 | -1.73% | $16,234 |
| 2016 | 09 | 1.53% | $22,578 | 0.01% | $16,520 |
| 2016 | 08 | 1.82% | $22,238 | 0.12% | $16,519 |
| 2016 | 07 | 6.64% | $21,840 | 3.65% | $16,499 |
| 2016 | 06 | 2.08% | $20,481 | 0.35% | $15,919 |
| 2016 | 05 | 3.88% | $20,063 | 1.70% | $15,864 |
| 2016 | 04 | 0.35% | $19,313 | 0.39% | $15,598 |
| 2016 | 03 | 3.63% | $19,247 | 6.73% | $15,537 |
| 2016 | 02 | 0.45% | $18,573 | -0.08% | $14,558 |
| 2016 | 01 | -0.31% | $18,490 | -4.98% | $14,570 |
| 2015 | 12 | -1.10% | $18,547 | -1.73% | $15,333 |
| 2015 | 11 | 0.70% | $18,753 | 0.37% | $15,603 |
| 2015 | 10 | 3.11% | $18,623 | 8.51% | $15,546 |
| 2015 | 09 | -1.22% | $18,060 | -2.55% | $14,327 |
| 2015 | 08 | -2.58% | $18,283 | -6.10% | $14,703 |
| 2015 | 07 | 4.40% | $18,767 | 2.26% | $15,657 |
| 2015 | 06 | -2.21% | $17,976 | -2.03% | $15,311 |
| 2015 | 05 | 2.00% | $18,382 | 1.29% | $15,628 |
| 2015 | 04 | -2.02% | $18,022 | 0.98% | $15,430 |
| 2015 | 03 | 0.24% | $18,393 | -1.57% | $15,280 |
| 2015 | 02 | 1.04% | $18,350 | 5.62% | $15,524 |
| 2015 | 01 | 2.78% | $18,160 | -2.96% | $14,697 |
| 2014 | 12 | 0.57% | $17,668 | -0.25% | $15,146 |
| 2014 | 11 | 4.04% | $17,569 | 2.75% | $15,185 |
| 2014 | 10 | 1.48% | $16,887 | 2.36% | $14,779 |
| 2014 | 09 | -0.59% | $16,641 | -1.38% | $14,439 |
| 2014 | 08 | 5.26% | $16,740 | 3.95% | $14,641 |
| 2014 | 07 | -0.67% | $15,903 | -1.34% | $14,085 |
| 2014 | 06 | 4.05% | $16,009 | 2.06% | $14,277 |
| 2014 | 05 | 4.01% | $15,386 | 2.32% | $13,988 |
| 2014 | 04 | -0.88% | $14,794 | 0.70% | $13,671 |
| 2014 | 03 | -2.05% | $14,925 | 0.83% | $13,576 |
| 2014 | 02 | 4.16% | $15,238 | 4.55% | $13,465 |
| 2014 | 01 | -0.08% | $14,629 | -3.52% | $12,878 |
| 2013 | 12 | 4.05% | $14,641 | 2.59% | $13,349 |
| 2013 | 11 | 3.08% | $14,070 | 2.96% | $13,012 |
| 2013 | 10 | 3.30% | $13,650 | 4.63% | $12,637 |
| 2013 | 09 | 5.69% | $13,214 | 3.16% | $12,078 |
| 2013 | 08 | 0.74% | $12,502 | -3.00% | $11,707 |
| 2013 | 07 | 5.14% | $12,410 | 5.17% | $12,069 |
| 2013 | 06 | -0.34% | $11,804 | -1.33% | $11,476 |
| 2013 | 05 | 6.36% | $11,844 | 2.36% | $11,631 |
| 2013 | 04 | 2.59% | $11,136 | 1.92% | $11,363 |
| 2013 | 03 | 1.05% | $10,855 | 3.80% | $11,149 |
| 2013 | 02 | 0.39% | $10,741 | 1.28% | $10,741 |
| 2013 | 01 | 6.83% | $10,700 | 5.12% | $10,606 |
| 2012 | 12 | 0.15% | $10,015 | 0.89% | $10,089 |