The Retirement Sequence-of-Returns Risk Report
Why the order of your returns matters more than the average, and what the last decade showed about protecting a nest egg.
The risk nobody mentions until it's too late
Two portfolios can earn the same average return and leave you in very different places, because of one thing: when the bad years happen. Take the same five yearly returns for a retiree with $500,000 who withdraws $25,000 a year:
| Balance after year 5 | |
|---|---|
| Bad years first (−25%, −12%, +8%, +18%, +25%) | $357,694 |
| Same years, reversed order | $426,592 |
Identical returns, identical withdrawals, about $69,000 apart. That is sequence-of-returns risk, and it is the main reason the years around retirement are the most dangerous part of investing.
What's in the free report
- A plain-English explanation of sequence-of-returns risk, with no jargon
- Two real stress tests: the 2022 retiree and the March 2020 crash
- What happened to a $500,000 account for every possible retirement start date since 2012
- An honest list of what the data does not prove
- How tactical asset allocation works, and what it costs compared with an advisor
All performance in the report is hypothetical and backtested, not live trading. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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For information only — not investment advice.